Сибирский федеральный университет

Тип публикации: статья из журнала

Год издания: 2022

Идентификатор DOI: 10.17516/1997-1370-157-0900

Ключевые слова: forest industry, granger causality, investment policy, timber investment

Аннотация: Investment in the forest sector is one of the critical issues for the development of the forest industry in Russia. To form an effective sectoral investment policy, it is necessary to accurately understand the causes and consequences of key processes in the industry. In particular, it is important to establish how investments are reflected in timber harvesting, and whether there is a connection between these processes and the well-being of the population. The study is aimed at identifying causal relationships between investment in the forestry sector, logging, and the well-being of the population by identifying Granger causality in vector autoregressive models. After testing for stationarity of the series, we evaluated a five-equation vector autoregression model and performed zero-constraint F-tests to identify causality. The results show that there is a bi-directional positive causality between logging volume and investment in forestry and pulp and paper production. The causality between investment in forestry and investment in pulp and paper production is also bi-directional and positive. In addition, one Granger cause has been identified for the growth of GRP, which is investments in wood processing and the production of wood products. Thus, the results suggest that investments in forestry and the forestry industry are important determinants of logging volumes in the Russian forest sector, and vice versa. At the same time, for the welfare of the population, the causality was revealed only on the part of investments in wood processing, which is also a practically important result in the context of stimulating investment policy in the forestry sector. © Siberian Federal University. All rights reserved.

Журнал: Journal of Siberian Federal University - Humanities and Social Sciences

Выпуск журнала: Vol. 15, Is. 7

Номера страниц: 955-964

ISSN журнала: 19971370

Издатель: Siberian Federal University

• Ivantsova E.D. (Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation)

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