Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia) : сборник научных трудов | Научно-инновационный портал СФУ

Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia) : сборник научных трудов

Тип публикации: статья из журнала

Год издания: 2018

Идентификатор DOI: 10.1007/s00484-017-1496-9

Ключевые слова: Crops yield variability, Temperature, Precipitation, Hydrothermal coefficient, South Siberia

Аннотация: We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.

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Издание

Журнал: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY

Выпуск журнала: Vol. 62, Is. 6

Номера страниц: 939-948

ISSN журнала: 00207128

Место издания: NEW YORK

Издатель: SPRINGER

Авторы

  • Abushkina Elena A. (Siberian Fed Univ, Khakass Tech Inst, 27 Shchetinkina St, Abakan 655017, Russia)
  • Belokopytova Liliana V. (Siberian Fed Univ, Khakass Tech Inst, 27 Shchetinkina St, Abakan 655017, Russia)
  • Zhirnova Dina F. (Siberian Fed Univ, Khakass Tech Inst, 27 Shchetinkina St, Abakan 655017, Russia)
  • Shah Santosh K. (Birbal Sahni Inst Palaeosci, 53 Univ Rd, Lucknow 226007, Uttar Pradesh, India)
  • Kostyakova Tatiana V. (Siberian Fed Univ, Khakass Tech Inst, 27 Shchetinkina St, Abakan 655017, Russia)

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