A staircase signal in the warming of the mid-20th century : доклад, тезисы доклада

Тип публикации: доклад, тезисы доклада, статья из сборника материалов конференций

Конференция: International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology (CEST 2017); Rhodes; Rhodes

Год издания: 2017

Ключевые слова: climate, global warming, regime shift, ENSO variability, time series analysis, decadal change

Аннотация: The residual dynamics left after adjusting global surface temperature anomalies(1950-2014) for short-term variability from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and volcanic eruptions have a staircase pattern.Linear trends for three quasi-stable periods 1950-1987, 1988-1997 and 1998-2014 are near zero with nearly all warming occurring during two step-like shifts in the years 1987/1988 and 1997/1998. We analysed several global datasets:HadCRUTv4.5–land and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies; ICOADS v2.5–SST anomalies measured from ships; NCEP OIv2 –SST measured by satellite instruments; UAH MSU v5.6 and RSS MSUv3.3 –two satellite datasets measuring temperature of the lower troposphere (TLT). The ENSO signal was removed by EOF analysis, and gave Comparable results for all datasets. A similar staircase behavior was found in global NCEP/NCAR reanalyses of 300mb meridional wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) In northern and southern midlatitudes.These many different sources confirm the reality of the regime-shift staircase structure of recent warming, which is masked by short-term ENSO variability and the effects of volcanic eruptions.

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Издание

Журнал: 15th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology (CEST 2017)

Номера страниц: 00726-00726

Издатель: Global Network for Environmental Science and Technology

Авторы

  • Belolipetsky P.V. (Institute of Biophysics SB RAS, Federal Research Center “Krasnoyarsk Science Center SB RAS”?)
  • Bartsev S.I. (Institute of Biophysics SB RAS, Federal Research Center “Krasnoyarsk Science Center SB RAS”?)
  • Saltykov M.Y. (Institute of Biophysics SB RAS, Federal Research Center “Krasnoyarsk Science Center SB RAS”?)
  • Reid P.C. (Marine Biological Association of the UK, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK)

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