Сибирский федеральный университет

Тип публикации: доклад, тезисы доклада, статья из сборника материалов конференций

Конференция: International Scientific Forum on Sustainable Development and Innovation (WFSDI 2021); Patras; Patras

Год издания: 2021

Идентификатор DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/202129501019

Аннотация: Strategic planning of the region is an important and effective method of building a rational system of mechanisms for state management of regional development. The development of a regional strategy makes it possible to identify the reserves of the systemic development of territories, which contributes to the economic growth of the country. Within the framework of strategic planning for the development of the territory, the most acute problem is the forecasting of macroeconomic indicators on which the subsequent strategic plans and programs of the region are based. In this regard, the issues of forecasting indicators and assessing potential risks are highly relevant. The study is aimed to develop a tool for predicting the social-and-economic parameters of the regional system in order to build effective strategic plans for regional development within the framework of the concept of ensuring the sustainability and economic security of the territory. The authors propose an approach based on the delta-normal method for calculating a quantitative risk measure. The approach is adapted to solve the problem of probabilistic assessment of indicators of the state of the system and risks and allows to determine the ranges of changes in the predicted indicator of the gross regional product of the region, considering the probable increments of factor indicators. The results of applying the developed approach may be used as the basis for strategic planning of measures to manage sustainability, economic security and dynamics of the territory's development.

Выпуск журнала: 295

Номера страниц: 01019-01019

Издатель: EDP Sciences

• Lobkova E.V. (Siberian Federal University)
• Lobkov K.Yu. (Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology)
• Mehta Natalia (Divine Mercy College)

• РИНЦ (eLIBRARY.RU)