Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent : научное издание | Научно-инновационный портал СФУ

Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent : научное издание

Тип публикации: статья из журнала

Год издания: 2021

Идентификатор DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7

Аннотация: Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes.

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Издание

Журнал: Nature Climate Change

ISSN журнала: 1758678X

Авторы

  • Roslin T. (University of Helsinki)
  • Antão L. (University of Helsinki)
  • Hällfors M. (University of Helsinki)
  • Lo C. (University of Helsinki)
  • Kurhinen J. (Forest Research Institute Karelian Research Centre,Russian Academy of Sciences)
  • Ovaskainen O. (Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics,Department of Biology,Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
  • Meyke E. (EarthCape OY)
  • Tikhonov G. (Department of Computer Science,Aalto University)
  • Delgado M.d.M. (Research Unit of Biodiversity (UMIB,UO-CSIC-PA),Oviedo University)
  • Gurarie E. (3237 Biology-Psychology Building,University of Maryland)
  • Abadonova M. (National Park Orlovskoe Polesie)
  • Abduraimov O. (Institute of Botany,Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan)
  • Mahmudov A. (Institute of Botany,Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan)
  • Turgunov M. (Institute of Botany,Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan)
  • Adrianova O. (Kostomuksha Nature Reserve)
  • Gaydysh I. (Kostomuksha Nature Reserve)
  • Sikkila N. (Kostomuksha Nature Reserve)
  • Akimova T. (Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Chuhontseva S. (Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Gorbunova E. (Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Kalinkin Y. (Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Korolyova H. (Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Mitrofanov O. (Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Sahnevich M. (Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Yakovlev V. (Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Zubina T. (Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Akkiev M. (Kabardino-Balkarski Nature Reserve)
  • Ananin A. (Institute of General and Experimental Biology,Siberian Branch,Russian Academy of Sciences)
  • Bukharova E. (FSE Zapovednoe Podlemorye)
  • Luzhkova N. (FSE Zapovednoe Podlemorye)
  • Andreeva E. (State Nature Reserve Stolby)
  • Goncharova N. (State Nature Reserve Stolby)
  • Hritankov A. (State Nature Reserve Stolby)
  • Knorre A. (Institute for Ecology and Geography,Siberian Federal University)
  • Kozsheechkin V. (State Nature Reserve Stolby)
  • Timoshkin V. (State Nature Reserve Stolby)
  • Andriychuk N. (Carpathian Biosphere Reserve)
  • Kozurak A. (Carpathian Biosphere Reserve)
  • Vekliuk A. (Carpathian Biosphere Reserve)
  • Antipin M. (Nizhne-Svirsky State Nature Reserve)
  • Arzamascev K. (State Nature Reserve Prisursky)
  • Babina S. (Zapovednoe Pribajkalje (Bajkalo-Lensky State Nature Reserve,Pribajkalsky National Park))
  • Babushkin M. (Darwin Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Kuznetsov A. (Darwin Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Nemtseva N. (Darwin Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Rybnikova I. (Darwin Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Zelenetskiy N. (Darwin Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Bakin O. (Volzhsko-Kamsky National Nature Biosphere Rezerve)
  • Chakhireva E. (Volzhsko-Kamsky National Nature Biosphere Rezerve)
  • Pavlov A. (Volzhsko-Kamsky National Nature Biosphere Rezerve)
  • Barabancova A. (FGBU National Park Shushenskiy Bor)
  • Tolmachev A. (FGBU National Park Shushenskiy Bor)
  • Basilskaja I. (Voronezhsky Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Sapelnikova I. (Voronezhsky Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Belova N. (Baikalsky State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Ermakova O. (Baikalsky State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Kozyr I. (Baikalsky State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Krasnopevtseva A. (Baikalsky State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Volodchenkov N. (Baikalsky State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Belyaeva N. (Visimsky Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Sibgatullin R. (Visimsky Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Bespalova T. (Kondinskie Lakes National Park named after L. F. Stashkevich)
  • Butunina A. (Kondinskie Lakes National Park named after L. F. Stashkevich)
  • Esengeldenova A. (Kondinskie Lakes National Park named after L. F. Stashkevich)
  • Korotkikh N. (Kondinskie Lakes National Park named after L. F. Stashkevich)
  • Larin E. (Kondinskie Lakes National Park named after L. F. Stashkevich)
  • Bisikalova E. (FSBI United Administration of the Kedrovaya Pad’ State Biosphere Nature Reserve and Leopard’s Land National Park)
  • Bobretsov A. (Pechoro-Ilych State Nature Reserve)
  • Kurbanbagamaev M. (Pechoro-Ilych State Nature Reserve)
  • Megalinskaja I. (Pechoro-Ilych State Nature Reserve)
  • Teplov V. (Pechoro-Ilych State Nature Reserve)
  • Teplova V. (Pechoro-Ilych State Nature Reserve)
  • Tertitsa T. (Pechoro-Ilych State Nature Reserve)
  • Bobrov V. (A. N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution)
  • Pospelov I. (A. N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution)
  • Bobrovskyi V. (Komsomolskiy Department,FGBU Zapovednoye Priamurye)
  • Kuberskaya O. (Komsomolskiy Department,FGBU Zapovednoye Priamurye)
  • Van P. (Komsomolskiy Department,FGBU Zapovednoye Priamurye)
  • Van V. (Komsomolskiy Department,FGBU Zapovednoye Priamurye)
  • Bochkareva E. (Institute of Systematics and Ecology of Animals,Siberian Branch,Russian Academy of Sciences)
  • Davydov E.A. (Altai State University)
  • Bogdanov G. (State Nature Reserve Bolshaya Kokshaga)
  • Bolshakov V. (Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology,Ural Branch,Russian Academy of Sciences)
  • Bondarchuk S. (Sikhote-Alin State Nature Biosphere Reserve named after K. G. Abramov)
  • Elsukov S. (Sikhote-Alin State Nature Biosphere Reserve named after K. G. Abramov)
  • Gromyko L. (Sikhote-Alin State Nature Biosphere Reserve named after K. G. Abramov)
  • Nesterova I. (Sikhote-Alin State Nature Biosphere Reserve named after K. G. Abramov)
  • Smirnova E. (Sikhote-Alin State Nature Biosphere Reserve named after K. G. Abramov)
  • Buyvolov Y. (FSBI Prioksko-Terrasniy State Reserve)
  • Sokolova G. (FSBI Prioksko-Terrasniy State Reserve)
  • Buyvolova A. (Lomonosov Moscow State University)
  • Prokhorov I. (Lomonosov Moscow State University)
  • Bykov Y. (National Park Meshchera)
  • Drozdova Z. (National Park Meshchera)
  • Mayorova S. (National Park Meshchera)
  • Chashchina O. (South Urals Federal Research Center of Mineralogy and Geoecology,Ilmeny State Reserve,Ural Branch,Russian Academy of Sciences)
  • Kuyantseva N. (South-Ural Federal University)
  • Zakharov V. (South Urals Federal Research Center of Mineralogy and Geoecology,Ilmeny State Reserve,Ural Branch,Russian Academy of Sciences)
  • Cherenkova N. (FGBU National Park Kenozersky)
  • Drovnina S. (FGBU National Park Kenozersky)
  • Samoylov A. (FGBU National Park Kenozersky)
  • Chistjakov S. (FGBU GPZ Kologrivskij les im. M.G. Sinicina)
  • Demchenko V. (Pryazovskyi National Nature Park)
  • Diadicheva E. (Pryazovskyi National Nature Park)
  • Sanko V. (Pryazovskyi National Nature Park)
  • Dobrolyubov A. (State Nature Reserve Privolzhskaya Lesostep)
  • Kudryavtsev A. (State Nature Reserve Privolzhskaya Lesostep)
  • Dostoyevskaya L. (Komarov Botanical Institute,Russian Academy of Sciences)
  • Fedotova V. (Komarov Botanical Institute,Russian Academy of Sciences)
  • Lebedev P. (Saint-Petersburg State Forest Technical University)
  • Dubanaev A. (Sary-Chelek State Nature Reserve)
  • Dubrovsky Y. (Institute for Evolutionary Ecology NAS Ukraine)
  • Epova L. (FGBU State Nature Reserve Kuznetsk Alatau)
  • Ermakova O.S. (Kerzhenskiy State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Ershkova E. (Ogarev Mordovia State University)
  • Evstigneev O. (Bryansk Forest Nature Reserve)
  • Kaygorodova E. (Bryansk Forest Nature Reserve)
  • Kossenko S. (Bryansk Forest Nature Reserve)
  • Kruglikov S. (Bryansk Forest Nature Reserve)
  • Sitnikova E. (Bryansk Forest Nature Reserve)
  • Fedchenko I. (Pinezhsky State Nature Reserve)
  • Puchnina L. (Pinezhsky State Nature Reserve)
  • Rykova S. (Pinezhsky State Nature Reserve)
  • Sivkov A. (Pinezhsky State Nature Reserve)
  • Filatova T. (The Central Chernozem State Biosphere Nature Reserve named after Professor V.V. Alyokhin)
  • Gashev S. (Tyumen State University)
  • Gavrilov A. (Reserves of Taimyr)
  • Kolpashikov L. (Reserves of Taimyr)
  • Pospelova E. (Reserves of Taimyr)
  • Strekalovskaya V. (Reserves of Taimyr)
  • Golovcov D. (Chatkalski National Park)
  • Gordeeva T. (National Park Ugra)
  • Teleganova V. (National Park Ugra)
  • Grishchenko V. (Kaniv Nature Reserve)
  • Kulsha Y. (Kaniv Nature Reserve)
  • Shevchyk V. (Kaniv Nature Reserve)
  • Yablonovska-Grishchenko E. (Kaniv Nature Reserve)
  • Hohryakov V. (Smolenskoe Poozerje National Park)
  • Kosenkov G. (Smolenskoe Poozerje National Park)
  • Shalaeva K. (Smolenskoe Poozerje National Park)
  • Ignatenko E. (FSBI Zeya State Nature Reserve)
  • Pavlova K. (FSBI Zeya State Nature Reserve)
  • Podolski S. (FSBI Zeya State Nature Reserve)
  • Igosheva S. (Polistovsky State Nature Reserve)
  • Novikova T. (Polistovsky State Nature Reserve)
  • Ivanova U. (Ural State Pedagogical University)
  • Kupriyanova M. (Ural State Pedagogical University)
  • Nezdoliy T. (Ural State Pedagogical University)
  • Skok N. (Ural State Pedagogical University)
  • Yantser O. (Ural State Pedagogical University)
  • Ivanova N. (Institute of Mathematical Problems of Biology RAS—the Branch of the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics,Russian Academy of Sciences)
  • Shashkov M. (Institute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems in Soil Sciences,Russian Academy of Sciences)
  • Kazansky F. (Kronotsky Federal Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Panicheva D. (Kronotsky Federal Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Kiseleva D. (Zhiguli Nature Reserve)
  • Korobov E. (Central Forest State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Shujskaja E. (Central Forest State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Stepanov S. (Central Forest State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Zheltukhin A. (Central Forest State Nature Biosphere Reserve)
  • Kotlugalyamova E. (National Park Bashkirija)
  • Sultangareeva L. (National Park Bashkirija)
  • Kozlovsky E. (State Nature Reserve Kurilsky)
  • Kulebyakina E. (Vodlozersky National Park,Karelia)
  • Mamontov V. (Vodlozersky National Park,Karelia)
  • Kutenkov A. (State Nature Reserve Kivach)
  • Kutenkova N. (State Nature Reserve Kivach)
  • Shcherbakov A. (State Nature Reserve Kivach)
  • Skorokhodova S. (State Nature Reserve Kivach)
  • Sukhov A. (State Nature Reserve Kivach)
  • Yakovleva M. (State Nature Reserve Kivach)
  • Litvinov K. (Astrakhan Biosphere Reserve)
  • Makovkina L. (FSBI United Administration of the Lazovsky State Reserve and National Park Zov Tigra)
  • Myslenkov A. (FSBI United Administration of the Lazovsky State Reserve and National Park Zov Tigra)
  • Voloshina I. (FSBI United Administration of the Lazovsky State Reserve and National Park Zov Tigra)
  • Meydus A. (Krasnoyarsk State Pedagogical University named after V.P. Astafyev)
  • Raiskaya J. (State Nature Reserve Tungusskiy)
  • Sopin V. (State Nature Reserve Tungusskiy)
  • Minin A. (Koltzov Institute of Developmental Biology,Russian Academy of Sciences)
  • Motruk M. (Carpathian National Nature Park)
  • Nasonova N. (State Environmental Institution National Park Braslav lakes)
  • Niroda T. (National Park Synevyr)
  • Putrashyk I. (National Park Synevyr)
  • Tyukh Y. (National Park Synevyr)
  • Yarema Y. (National Park Synevyr)
  • Polikarpova N. (Pasvik State Nature Reserve)
  • Polyanskaya T. (Mari Chodra National Park)
  • Prokosheva I. (State Nature Reserve Vishersky)
  • Rozhkov Y. (State Nature Reserve Olekminsky)
  • Rozhkova O. (State Nature Reserve Olekminsky)
  • Tirski D. (State Nature Reserve Olekminsky)
  • Rudenko M. (Crimea Nature Reserve)
  • Sazonov S. (Forest Research Institute Karelian Research Centre,Russian Academy of Sciences)
  • Vetchinnikova L. (Forest Research Institute Karelian Research Centre,Russian Academy of Sciences)
  • Selyunina Z. (Black Sea Biosphere Reserve)
  • Shubin S. (State Nature Reserve Nurgush)
  • Tselishcheva L. (State Nature Reserve Nurgush)
  • Spasovski Y. (Caucasian State Biosphere Reserve of the Ministry of Natural Resources)
  • Stratiy V. (National Nature Park Vyzhnytskiy)
  • Suleymanova G. (National Park Khvalynsky)
  • Tomilin A. (Information-Analytical Centre for Protected Areas)
  • Vasin A. (State Nature Reserve Malaya Sosva)
  • Vasina A. (State Nature Reserve Malaya Sosva)
  • Vinogradov V. (Krasnoyarsk State Medical University named after Prof. V.F.Voino-Yasenetsky)
  • Xoliqov T. (Surhanskiy State Nature Reserve)
  • Zahvatov A. (Mordovia State Nature Reserve)

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