Сибирский федеральный университет

Тип публикации: статья из журнала

Год издания: 2020

Идентификатор DOI: 10.1016/j.dendro.2020.125757

Ключевые слова: climate reconstruction, dendroclimatology, human history, northern hemisphere, tree-ring width, volcanic eruptions

Аннотация: Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length and predictive skill), it is challenging to estimate past amplitude ranges, disentangle the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic forcing, or probe deeper interrelationships between climate variability and human history. Here, we compile and analyse updated versions of all the existing summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Northern Hemisphere that span the entire Common Era. We apply a novel ensemble approach to reconstruct extra-tropical summer temperatures from 1 to 2010 CE, and calculate uncertainties at continental to hemispheric scales. Peak warming in the 280s, 990s and 1020s, when volcanic forcing was low, was comparable to modern conditions until 2010 CE. The lowest June-August temperature anomaly in 536 not only marks the beginning of the coldest decade, but also defines the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). While prolonged warmth during Roman and medieval times roughly coincides with the tendency towards societal prosperity across much of the North Atlantic/European sector and East Asia, major episodes of volcanically-forced summer cooling often presaged widespread famines, plague outbreaks and political upheavals. Our study reveals a larger amplitude of spatially synchronized summer temperature variation during the first millennium of the Common Era than previously recognised.

Журнал: DENDROCHRONOLOGIA

Выпуск журнала: Vol. 64

Номера страниц: 125757

ISSN журнала: 11257865

Место издания: MUNICH

Издатель: ELSEVIER GMBH

• Buentgen Ulf (Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England; Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Global Change Res Ctr CzechGlobe, Brno 60300, Czech Republic; Masaryk Univ, Dept Geog, Fac Sci, Brno 61300, Czech Republic)
• Arseneault Dominique (Univ Quebec, Dept Biol Chem & Geog, Rimouski, PQ G5L 3A1, Canada)
• Boucher Etienne (Univ Quebec, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H2X 3R9, Canada)
• Churakova (Sidorova) Olga V. (Siberian Fed Univ, Inst Ecol & Geog, Krasnoyarsk 660041, Russia)
• Gennaretti Fabio (Univ Quebec Abitibi Temiscamingue, Forest Res Inst, Amos, PQ J9T 2L8, Canada)
• Crivellaro Alan (Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England)
• Hughes Malcolm K. (Univ Arizona, Lab Tree Ring Res, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA)
• Kirdyanov Alexander V. (Siberian Fed Univ, Inst Ecol & Geog, Krasnoyarsk 660041, Russia; Sukachev Inst Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia)
• Kippel Lara (Justus Liebig Univ, Dept Geog, D-35390 Giessen, Germany)
• Krusic Paul J. (Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England; Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden)
• Linderholm Hans W. (Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Reg Climate Grp, S-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden)
• Ljungqvist Fredrik C. (Stockholm Univ, Dept Hist, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden; Swedish Coll Adv Study, S-15238 Uppsala, Sweden)
• Ludescher Josef (Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany)
• McCormick Michael (Harvard Univ, Dept Hist, Initiat Sci Human Past Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; Harvard Univ, Max Planck Harvard Res Ctr Archaeosci Ancient Med, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA)
• Myglan Vladimir S. (Siberian Fed Univ, Inst Humanities, Krasnoyarsk 660041, Russia)
• Nicolussi Kurt (Univ Innsbruck, Dept Geog, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria)
• Piermattei Alma (Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England)
• Oppenheimer Clive (Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England)
• Reinig Frederick (Johannes Gutenberg Univ Mainz, Dept Geog, D-55099 Mainz, Germany)
• Sigl Michael (Univ Bern, Climate & Environm Phys CEP, Phys Inst, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res OCCR, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland)
• Vaganov Eugene A. (Siberian Fed Univ, Inst Ecol & Geog, Krasnoyarsk 660041, Russia; Sukachev Inst Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia)
• Esper Jan (Johannes Gutenberg Univ Mainz, Dept Geog, D-55099 Mainz, Germany)

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