Сибирский федеральный университет

Перевод названия: Basic regional risks of territorial development for Siberian federal district

Тип публикации: статья из журнала

Год издания: 2018

Идентификатор DOI: 10.25743/ICT.2018.23.16506

Ключевые слова: базовые риски регионального развития, социально-природнотехногенная система, индивидуальный стратегический риск, приемлемый риск, basic risks of regional development, Social-natural-Technogenic system, individual strategic risks, normative risks

Аннотация: Выполнен анализ индивидуальных стратегических рисков социально-природнотехногенной системы промышленного региона на примере территорий Сибирского федерального округа. Рассмотрены основные виды рисков и их средние значения для двух групп: потенциальные и реализованные, и приведены факторы, их определяющие. Выполнено сравнение фактических и нормативных уровней риска с учетом особенностей регионального развития территорий. Выявлены базовые индивидуальные риски для территории Красноярского края. The purpose of the work is to analyze and evaluate individual strategic risks arising in the socio-natural-technogenic system of the industrial region by the example of the territories of the Siberian Federal District. We present a comparative assessment of actual and regulatory risk levels, taking into account the specific features of regional development of the territories. Partly this project is aimed to carry out comparative assessment of the actual and normative risk levels taking into account regional features of territory’s development. Risk assessment methods are based on normative documents of the Russian Federation. The individual risks of deaths caused by technogenic emergency (the realized risks) were calculating with using MP 2-4-71-40 for some regions of Siberian Federal District. The cancerogenic and non-cancerogenic inhalation risks for population health are counted by according to methodology P 2.1.10.1920-04. The general methodology of territorial risks assessment includes techniques and models of anthropogenic risks assessment, creating of crisis databases, algorithms of mapping with using GIS-technologies. Results. The assessment of inhalation risks was carried out for the cities of Krasnoyarsk region using the data of the state environmental monitoring network during from 2003 to 2014. The individual risks of death caused by technogenic emergency were calculated according to the data of EMERCOM for Krasnoyarsk, Omsk, Novosibirsk and Kemerovo regions during 2011-2015. Basic individual risks for Krasnoyarsk region are determined taking into account the specialty of regional development. Findings. Assessment of the levels of environmental and human-made risks expands the possibilities for developing economic mechanisms for regulating the safety of regions and territories, including insurance of potentially dangerous objects and people living in areas of possible damage due to emergencies, which leads to a decrease in the volume of compensation payments from local government budgets. On the other hand, reducing the risks of emergencies provides more stable functioning of the economic potential and increases the competitive (investment) advantages of the region. A comprehensive assessment of the environmental condition and safety at the level of municipalities and industrial regions should be carried out on the basis of a systemic analysis of development risks, which will improve the level of efficiency of territorial management by implementing measures to reduce the actual values of the risks of territorial development.

Журнал: Вычислительные технологии

Выпуск журнала: Т. 23, № 4

Номера страниц: 95-109

ISSN журнала: 15607534

Место издания: Новосибирск

Издатель: Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки Институт вычислительных технологий Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук

• Москвичев Владимир Викторович (Сибирский федеральный университет)
• Тасейко Ольга Викторовна (Сибирский государственный университет науки и технологий им. акад. М.Ф. Решетнева)
• Иванова Ульяна Сергеевна (Сибирский федеральный университет)
• Черных Дарья Александровна (Сибирский государственный университет науки и технологий им. акад. М.Ф. Решетнева)

• Ядро РИНЦ (eLIBRARY.RU)
• Список ВАК