THE EVALUATION AND MANAGEMENT OF RISKS IN FORECASTING OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION SYSTEM

Тип публикации: статья из журнала

Год издания: 2017

Ключевые слова: socio-economic indicators forecasting, risk evaluation, state and municipal administration, regulatory actions evaluation

Аннотация: The relevance of the researched problem is due to the high importance of forecasting and possible risks and consequences evaluation in the process of decision development and implementation at state and regional levels. The purpose of this article is to develop a tool for evaluation the risk of socio-economic indicators deviations from the expected level in forecasting of regional development in the sphere of state decision-making. As the main method for solving problems of system’s socio-economic parameters forecasting the authors suggest a method used in forecasting the returns of financial assets in portfolio analysis. The results of forecasting the most important indicators of the regional socio-economic sphere (per capita income and the composite index of population living standard) obtained with the use of proposed tool allow to evaluate the effects of administrative decisions and risks of their implementation, as the system response to the action of controlled and uncontrolled factors complex. The article may be useful for government and municipal bodies when making administrative decisions and regulatory actions evaluation

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Издание

Журнал: Modern European Researches

Выпуск журнала: 5

Номера страниц: 16-24

ISSN журнала: 23118806

Место издания: Salzburg

Издатель: Межрегиональный центр инновационных технологий в образовании

Авторы

  • Lobkova Elena (Siberian Federal University)
  • Melnichenko Tatiana (student, Siberian Federal University)

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