A conceptual model of abrupt shifts in the biosphere-climate system : доклад, тезисы доклада

Тип публикации: доклад, тезисы доклада, статья из сборника материалов конференций

Конференция: International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology (CEST 2017); Rhodes; Rhodes

Год издания: 2017

Ключевые слова: climate shifts, multiple equilibria in climate, staircase-like climate dynamics

Аннотация: Time series analysis of global temperature and ~70 other global and local parameters indicates the presence of abrupt shifts between stationary states. The concept of non-linear systems, which undoubtedly include the "biosphere-climate" system, makes the threshold response to gradually increasing influence factor (the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations) quite expectable. Quasi-stable regimes taking place between the shifts presume the existence of some regulation mechanism which can maintain global temperature near constant in the presence of changing external forcing.Some authors suggest regulation of surface temperatures by clouds. Understanding the nature of such shifts and stationary regimes between them at qualitative concepts can be achieved by using conceptual small-scale models. In the paper some phenomenological extension of Lorenz-84 Model devoted to low order description of atmospheric circulation accounting possible clouds feedback was considered. It was shown the model itself is able to reduce the effect of forcing changes. Involving clouds feedback increases the resistance of the model to external disturbances

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Издание

Журнал: 15th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology (CEST 2017)

Номера страниц: 01013-01013

Издатель: Global Network for Environmental Science and Technology

Авторы

  • Bartsev S.I. (Institute of Biophysics, SB RAS)
  • Belolipetsky P.V. (Institute of Computational Modelling, SB RAS)
  • Saltykov M.Y. (Institute of Biophysics, SB RAS)

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